Could Oxford declare UDI?
Back at last!
I'm out of the land of year-end accounts and tax comps, I've waved goodbye to my auditors and I'm gazing out of the window at what I confidently expected to be glorious sunshine. I mean we've had that all week with me too busy to enjoy it, so why wouldn't it be sunny now?
Practical application of Murphy's Law, I guess. If the rain wasn't enough to shatter the idyll, the Delice de France lorry which has just parked outside my office, with its rattly engine reaching cacophonous proportions, is shattering most other things.
No doubt the neighbours will blame Blenheim, but this is really nothing to do with us. I suspect some online database for sociopathic lorry drivers has listed this end of Woodstock as a great place to park a lorry while running the engine.... Which does get me thinking - I can actually think of several places where I would quite like to place such a lorry myself.
Last week, we were privileged to join the celebrations of some of Oxfordshire's best businesses at the Oxford Business Awards. While it is by definition a narrow segment of local businesses (businesses in decline not tending to win awards) it was a truly uplifting experience. The local economy as far as I can tell was very quick to "rightsize" itself when recession started to bite and has then confidently motored on. There is a slightly unreal feel to the local economy at the moment. Looked at on a micro level, it is difficult at present to find any obvious problems in the businesses with which we deal. The local economy seems quite vibrant (and this is not simply the consequence of She Who Must Be Obeyed's single handed campaign to drive up GDP). There is less transactional activity out there (acquisitions, etc) but most businesses we see are trading comfortably.
Yet how can that be? As a nation, we are toying with bankruptcy with unheard-of debt levels. £2.2 trillion anyone? That is just what the government thinks too. The OECD thinks it could be 50% worse. Even more scary, neither figure factors in the costs of:
Wednesday was Cost of Government Day - each of us has worked from 1 January until Wednesday to pay for the government's spending programme. Will we make it to the summer holidays next year?
We all have children here; indeed we employ a lot of young students here. I'm only 40 and yet I already know that the burden of this debt will outlast my working life. So in that context, Oxford businesses cannot really be in a bubble of immunity unless it can radically outperform the rest of the UK economy - at the expense of the rest of the UK economy I suspect.
Looking around me at the Oxford Business Awards last week, I feel like having a sneaky bet on them doing just that. There is a lot of entrepreneurial and intellectual power here, combined with a lot of long term wealth - especially at the universities. We are well positioned geograpically and, on the basis of what I saw last week, we possess a lot of belief in the future. If I have one conviction, it is that there is nowhere else I would rather be for the next few years.
Have a great weekend (and pray for more sunshine).
PS Yes, we saw Famous, Rich and Homeless on Wednesday. I would like to claim that the whole thing was a devilish plot by Lord Blandford, Love Productions and the BBC to ensure maximum publicity for a very moving, important and deserving cause. But I can't. However, I AM grateful that this will be the end result of his behaviour.
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I'm out of the land of year-end accounts and tax comps, I've waved goodbye to my auditors and I'm gazing out of the window at what I confidently expected to be glorious sunshine. I mean we've had that all week with me too busy to enjoy it, so why wouldn't it be sunny now?
Practical application of Murphy's Law, I guess. If the rain wasn't enough to shatter the idyll, the Delice de France lorry which has just parked outside my office, with its rattly engine reaching cacophonous proportions, is shattering most other things.
No doubt the neighbours will blame Blenheim, but this is really nothing to do with us. I suspect some online database for sociopathic lorry drivers has listed this end of Woodstock as a great place to park a lorry while running the engine.... Which does get me thinking - I can actually think of several places where I would quite like to place such a lorry myself.
Last week, we were privileged to join the celebrations of some of Oxfordshire's best businesses at the Oxford Business Awards. While it is by definition a narrow segment of local businesses (businesses in decline not tending to win awards) it was a truly uplifting experience. The local economy as far as I can tell was very quick to "rightsize" itself when recession started to bite and has then confidently motored on. There is a slightly unreal feel to the local economy at the moment. Looked at on a micro level, it is difficult at present to find any obvious problems in the businesses with which we deal. The local economy seems quite vibrant (and this is not simply the consequence of She Who Must Be Obeyed's single handed campaign to drive up GDP). There is less transactional activity out there (acquisitions, etc) but most businesses we see are trading comfortably.
Yet how can that be? As a nation, we are toying with bankruptcy with unheard-of debt levels. £2.2 trillion anyone? That is just what the government thinks too. The OECD thinks it could be 50% worse. Even more scary, neither figure factors in the costs of:
- unfunded pension liabilities (not just the lovely public sector final salary schemes but everyone's state pension)
- all our liabilities under private finance initiatives
- nuclear decommissioning and (my personal favourite)
- the impact of demographic shifts - our population is aging meaning less tax payers and more pensioners
Wednesday was Cost of Government Day - each of us has worked from 1 January until Wednesday to pay for the government's spending programme. Will we make it to the summer holidays next year?
We all have children here; indeed we employ a lot of young students here. I'm only 40 and yet I already know that the burden of this debt will outlast my working life. So in that context, Oxford businesses cannot really be in a bubble of immunity unless it can radically outperform the rest of the UK economy - at the expense of the rest of the UK economy I suspect.
Looking around me at the Oxford Business Awards last week, I feel like having a sneaky bet on them doing just that. There is a lot of entrepreneurial and intellectual power here, combined with a lot of long term wealth - especially at the universities. We are well positioned geograpically and, on the basis of what I saw last week, we possess a lot of belief in the future. If I have one conviction, it is that there is nowhere else I would rather be for the next few years.
Have a great weekend (and pray for more sunshine).
PS Yes, we saw Famous, Rich and Homeless on Wednesday. I would like to claim that the whole thing was a devilish plot by Lord Blandford, Love Productions and the BBC to ensure maximum publicity for a very moving, important and deserving cause. But I can't. However, I AM grateful that this will be the end result of his behaviour.
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posted by Dominic Hare at
Friday, June 26, 2009
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